CORD faces a divided Coast as referendum push gathers steam

Mombasa Governor Ali Hassan Joho

Mombasa, Kenya: The push for a referendum by the Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD) faces a number of hurdles at the Coast where the Opposition received overwhelming support in the last General Election.

Analysts warn that the political landscape in the region could be gradually tilting following the emergence of political differences and realignments. CORD’s strongholds in Kilifi and Kwale are home of the so-called ‘rebel’ Coast MPs, loyal to Kilifi North MP and the coalition’s former Minority Chief Whip, Gideon Mung’aro. These rebels have shown little interest in the referendum.

Mombasa appears to be the only county with steadfast support for the referendum push. But Changamwe MP Omar Mwinyi believes Coast supports the push for the referendum because residents want land reforms and allocation of more resources to county governments.

“The CORD team at the Coast is ready for the referendum vote because we want our land protected from grabbers and more resources made available to the counties,” he said.

Since the battle will be fought at county assemblies which will determine whether or not the threshold of support for a referendum is adequate, the support of MCAs will likely tilt the vote. In Mombasa County, the nerve centre of Coast politics, all 45 MCAs belong to ODM. They include 30 elected members and 15 nominated ones.

ODM also enjoys greater support in Kilifi County where it boasts 51 of 53 MCAs. Jubilee and Amani coalitions have one member each. Governor Amason Kingi is said to have a major say at the county assembly and could sway the vote despite rebellion within CORD from Mung’aro's side.

In Kwale, CORD has 11 MCAs, 10 of them from ODM. Jubilee has 13 while Amani coalition has eight. CORD is trying to woo UDF’s eight MCAs and those from other fringe parties like the Kenya National Congress (KNC) and Kadu Asili, which has three MCAs. Many pro-Jubilee MCAs have indicated that they would support efforts to increase the financial allocation to counties.

In Taita Taveta, CORD has 22 MCAs out of 35. The assembly has 15 nominated members, mostly from the Opposition coalition. Most MPs in the region support CORD and the issue of empowering the National Land Commission (NLC) will resonate well with many MCAs in a region where most residents are squatters.

It is a mixed bag for CORD in Lamu, a county which has 20 elected members and 10 nominated ward representatives. ODM has four members, UDF in which Governor Issa Timamy belongs, has three, as does Farmers Party and Safina. TNA and New Democrats have two members each while United Party of Kenya (UPK) and Alliance Party of Kenya (APK) have each one member. “The house is a mix of members from different political parties,” said speaker Mohamed Hashim.

Sour relations

 

The assembly has in the past leaned towards Jubilee, but recent insecurity and the arrest of the governor has soured relations and sparked ethnic divisions. This assembly is open for persuasion and Jubilee is reported to be working tirelessly to carry the day there. In Tana River County, there are 26 MCAs. Cord has eight elected members while Jubilee has three. CORD has the majority of the 15 nominated MCAs.

Wundanyi MP Thomas Mwadeghu, who replaced Mr Mung’aro as minority chief whip, Women’s Representative Joyce Lay, Mwatate’s Andrew Mwadime, Voi’s MP Julius Mulola and senator Dan Mwazo support the referendum push. However, Mr Mwazo, Mrs Lay, Mr Mwadime and Mr Mulalo have reportedly not yet began pushing for the vote.

Jubilee leaders in Lamu and Tana River counties, which have been hit by recent clashes, are opposed to the referendum push. They include Bura’s Ali Wario (TNA), Galole’s Hassan Dukicha (UDF) and Garsen’s Ibrahim Sane (URP). Tana River Governor Hussein Dado has in recent past opposed the push, but now appears to be wavering. Lamu West MP Julius Ndegwa (KNC) and his Lamu East counterpart Ali Sharif Athman (UDF) are not keen on the referendum.

President Uhuru Kenyatta and his deputy visited coastal counties last weekend where they met various elected leaders and advised against backing the referendum vote.

Kwale Governor and Vice Chairman of the Council of Governors Salim Mvurya has declared his support for the referendum fronted by governors, saying it is non-partisan issue.

“We are driving our referendum agenda in a non-partisan manner. We are asking for support from all regardless of whether they are CORD or Jubilee supporters. The Council of Governors has met representatives of MCAs and the Speakers’ Forum in Nairobi for joint consultations and they fully support our agenda,” Mvurya said.

The governors’ focus is on increased funding for devolution, strengthening of the Senate, land reforms and improved management of security. They also want the MCAs given similar privileges as MPs.

Analysts say the referendum will be influenced more by politics than ideology.

 “The referendum is more about politics than on issues. The outcome will depend on the leadership of a certain region. But the governors and MCAs have more sway than MPs because they are always on the ground,” said Dr Owen Baya.

Land issues

Ms Maimuna Mwidau, a political pundit, said CORD will rely more on Mombasa Senator Hassan Omar and Governor Hassan Joho as its support in Kilifi and Kwale counties has been distorted by the Mung’aro rebels.

“Issues of devolution and land are close to the hearts of Coast residents. Mombasa has been the most vocal county and the senator and governor will be the key players in the referendum. Whether it will succeed or not is another issue altogether,” she said.

 

Dr Hassan Mwakimako, a university lecturer, said the referendum talk has not gathered momentum at the Coast because it is still regarded as an ODM affair. He, however, says the land reforms issue could catch the attention of many people if properly framed.

“Devolution has disappointed the people of Coast because funds are still being controlled by the central government. The people prefer a federal structure which provides for self-determination,” said the university don.

It is feared that Mung’aro is galvanising his team in Kilifi, Kwale and elsewhere within the six coastal counties to oppose the referendum campaign. His key ally and Kilifi South MP Idd Mustafa has rubbished the referendum call, saying it was premature. “We had an election just last year and we need time to deliver on our election pledges. When we were asking for votes we never told our people that there would be a referendum within five years. We told them we would deliver,” Mustafa said.

He said Coast lags behind in development asked leaders not to waste time on campaigns. Mustafa also argued that CORD has not approached them over the collection of signatures to support the referendum.

“We feel there are alternative ways of addressing insecurity and funding devolution besides a costly referendum,” Mustafa said.

Mung’aro and his supporters joined Deputy President William Ruto at a fundraiser in Malindi, Kilifi County, last weekend where they dismissed the proposed referendum as a waste of time and taxpayers’ money.

Apart from Mustafa, Mung’aro, who is also the Coast Parliamentary Group chairman, has been working closely with MPs Aisha Jumwa (Kilifi Women Representative), Dan Kazungu (Malindi), Zainab Chidzuga (Kwale Women Representative), Suleiman Dori (Msambweni) and Khatib Mwashetani (Lunga Lunga), all from the CORD coalition.

Jubilee has Naomi Shaban (Taveta), Peter Shee (Ganze), Ndegwa (Lamu West) and Gonzi Ra (Kinango). Lamu East MP Ali Sharif Athma, a member of the Amani coalition,  also backs Mung’aro.

Strong leadership

Rai, the longest serving MP at the Coast, said the referendum would waste Sh8 billion and undermine development. “It is not a priority. Does it mean that if somebody differs with his wife there should be a referendum?”he posed.

And to make matters difficult for CORD, the Council of Imams and Preachers of Kenya (CIPK) National Organizing Secretary Sheikh Mohamed Khalifa said the referendum would not solve the country’s problems.

“We do not think security matters can be resolved through a referendum. We are calling of Kenyans to oppose this vote because it is a waste of resources,” Khalifa argued.

 Chama cha Uzalendo Chairman Maur Bwanamaka said he was working closely with Coast professionals to ensure that issues that affect Coast people are addressed by the referendum. “We are coming up with a 15-man committee to draw a referendum agenda for Coast because this region lacks strong leadership for this process. We are opposed to a presidential system because Coast has no chance of ever producing a president owing to lack of numbers,” Bwanamaka said.