Could Deputy President William Ruto be losing his political influence in his Rift Valley backyard?

Kenya’s numero dos and incumbent Rift Valley kingpin, URP boss William Ruto, is gasping for his political life.

Mr Ruto, who forged an unlikely alliance with TNA boss Uhuru Muigai Kenyatta to snatch power, may be running out of luck. That’s because sinister clouds are gathering overhead.

Mr Ruto, who shares a name with iconic Nandi anti-colonial hero Koitalel arap Samoei, may have run out of rabbits to pull out of the hat. Even a cat’s nine lives come to an end someday.

That appears to be Mr Ruto’s fate. With The Hague Sword of Damocles hanging over his head — and a deep rebellion in his backyard — Mr Ruto appears to be headed to an unlikely political abyss. Let me tell you what my crystal ball tells me.

First, Mr Ruto’s success may be his undoing. After supplanting former President Daniel arap Moi to emerge the undisputed Kalenjin kingpin, Mr Ruto let power go to his head. They say pride cometh before the fall.

Rather than carry a big stick and speak softly, Mr Ruto instead chose to throw his weight around. I don’t dispute that it’s better to be feared than loved — to quote Niccolo Machiavelli, the Italian diplomat and political theorist — but that’s only if you can’t have both. Mr Ruto could’ve easily commanded both love and fear, but chose to rule by the latter. This is what is called an unforced error.

Second, Mr Ruto doesn’t understand how to play second fiddle. This is another rule of politics — don’t show up, or outshine, your boss. In the rickety marriage that’s Jubilee, Mr Ruto is clearly the junior partner.

The Constitution says so, and there’s nothing Mr Ruto can do about it. Even though Mr Kenyatta can’t fire his deputy, he can give him the cold shoulder and unleash political dogs against him. But Mr Ruto often acts as though he’s the one who holds the ace against Mr Kenyatta. This is a futile battle akin to a dog flinging itself against a fortified fence. Nyet — Mr Ruto would be foolish to drink Kool-Aid that fuels him to outdo Mr Kenyatta.

Third, political philosophers will tell you not to forget where you came from, especially if you’ve become a political maven. The African political godfather Julius Nyerere often reminded earthlings who’d achieved power to remember those they saw on their way up for they’d surely see them again on their way down. Lesson — don’t let your success swell your head with hubris. Forge relationships with your mentors and keep them close. Pay homage to them, and do so often. Instead, Mr Ruto appears to be full of disdain for the Moi political machine in the Rift.

Fourth, keep your friends close, and your enemies especially closer. This is another rule Mr Ruto has broken, and often. He’s fond of gratuitously attacking Cord leader Raila Odinga. Mr Odinga is Kenya’s senior political strategist. Those who underestimate him do so at their peril.

Those sitting on a flimsy political ledge like Mr Ruto should cultivate Mr Odinga’s goodwill. Mr Ruto doesn’t know when — which could be sooner than he thinks — he will need Agwambo. He sends the likes of Majority Leader Aden Duale to disparage Mr Odinga. This enrages Mr Odinga’s political base which Mr Ruto needs to put the fear of God in the Kikuyu Nation. Why put all his eggs in one basket?

Fifth, and most important, Mr Ruto has totally mismanaged his namesake — Bomet Governor Isaac Ruto. Methinks Mr Ruto would have wanted the Bomet Governor as his secret ace in his strategy against TNA in Jubilee. But no — Mr Ruto thought that his erstwhile namesake could be swatted like a fly.

His strong arm tactics against Governor Ruto — using bumbling political neophytes to publicly attack and humiliate him — have fallen flat. That’s why others are emerging as the alternatives to DP Ruto in Rift Valley.

They may bury his political carcass should The Hague case goes against him. The case that made him could unmake him in a nanosecond. There’s much anticipation among his foes in the Rift.

Finally, Mr Ruto has been embroiled in a number of scandals and legal tussles that have weakened him.

Some of his key lieutenants were in the so-called List of Shame Mr Kenyatta made public. Some have resigned, and more may be forced to do so. His allies have read this as political witch-hunt by TNA.

Perhaps they are right. What’s clear is that Mr Kenyatta has opened a can of worms that may spell doom for Mr Ruto. Will the anti-graft war consume Mr Ruto?