William Ruto's path to power and the drifting Rift

NAIROBI: Rift Valley is boiling and it is not unexpected. Let us go back to May last year, when we argued in this space that the very thing that made Deputy President William Ruto the kingpin of Rift Valley politics after former President Moi's retirement and defeat of his preferred successor, Uhuru Kenyatta in 2002, was what could easily bring him down.

The point then was that while an Uhuru Presidency still seemed a far-fetched dream in 2002, Mr Ruto, like most Kalenjins, believed in him, and gave it his all, especially perched as he was on that lofty part of the tree of power labelled Kanu's Director of Elections.

If you remember how the Jogoo party used to conduct elections then, you would know why this was a coveted position, given the sweet things the holder had access to.

In the Rift Valley, the end of the Moi presidency was abrupt; the expectation having been that he would still be pulling strings through a Mr Kenyatta victory over the Opposition's main candidate, Mwai Kibaki.

But defeated, the lingering picture in the mind then would forever be a crestfallen Uhuru-Ruto conceding defeat at the hands of the Raila Odinga-George Saitoti-Kalonzo Musyoka—Kijana Wamalwa-Charity Ngilu-Mwai Kibaki behemoth called the National Rainbow Coalition.

Thereafter, as the story goes, the Kalenjins wept and some retreated to the village to monitor what this polling 'disaster' would throw up.

Many are the stories on how members of the majority shareholder tribe in Narc went through government offices identifying Kalenjin name-tags and their assigned job titles on a job-hunting mission.

But as the likes of Chris Murungaru (who would soon know what falling from grace to grass means, after tripling on a naked political electricity wire) and Kiraitu Murungi called Mr Moi names and with innuendo about having him face 'justice' floated, it took two unlikely rivals to come together and say: No, let the grand old man of Kenya's politics enjoy his retirement in peace.

That was first, Raila Odinga, who was the Roads minister, and Mr Ruto. In Mr Ruto's voice of admonition against the Gema flotilla training its eyes on Mzee, the Kalenjins found a 'saviour', a man they called Nyiganet (The Courageous One).

And so the narrative of Kalenjin politics changed, and by 2007, Mr Ruto had the community's trust in the bag, and would easily impress by waving it in Raila's face.

But as things were, Tinga flopped, a painful thing for Mr Ruto after Mr Kenyatta loss. From there, he hit the hard-line stance and said as much against Mr Kibaki.

Whether it was the Kalenjin's collective psyche at work or if Mr Ruto pressed the button, as The Hague prosecutor claims, Rift Valley exploded and soon a power-sharing deal was inked.

That gave Mr Ruto one foot inside the nusu mkate government he dislikes so much, but because of his next strategy, he wouldn't stay long because his mobile call log started choking with exchanges with that old friend, Mr Kenyatta.

Then in came the ICC with the umbilical cord that joined the two by way of common charges. One of course is free and the liberty of the other is still subject to the robed guys at The Hague.

I am no politician and would probably fare worse if I were to try my luck here.

But clearly, Kalenjins like two guarantees in life; a 'home' (political party) of their own, and a 'Baba' with capacity to appeal to the all the 10 or so sub-tribes. When these two are assured then they are at peace with the spirits of their forefathers.

Now, three things have undermined Mr Ruto's claim or hold onto the Baba tag. One, ICC ruling may go either to the left or right, and so people are beginning to ask; supposing he is not there?

Two, the politics – also called the 'tyranny' – of ethnic numbers' has been 'devolved', and guys jostling for 2017 seats have found out that it may be possible to 'negotiate' with the populous Kalenjin sub-tribe than going for the whole community because you will still get substantial votes anyway, and as they say, haba na haba hujaza kibaba.

Then there is also the hidden factor that being asked to sit back and support others until your turn comes in 2022 (after Mr Kenyatta's supposed two terms) has come to sound to some Kalenjins like being directed to go Jomo Kenyatta International Airport to go board a train to Mombasa.

Politics is indeed too dynamic for such deals to be relied upon, just like being given a Sh20million cheque today postdated January 1, 2022.

Then the real crux of the matter; just when Kalenjins expect Mr Ruto would refurbish and expand its new home, the United Republican Party, he is asking them to disband it and join the new Jubilee Alliance Party.

Remember one Musalia Mudavadi before Mr Kenyatta outwitted the mademons? Kalenjins need a 'home' just like other Kenyans and I am sure they are wondering on whose LR No. JAP house sits on.

Will they be in the master's room or the servants' quarters? Whose 'cabinet' will be in the kitchen whispering in low tones?

Finally, it seems from what we are hearing lately, that this particular Baba runs his kraal with a sledgehammer.

There are many of his children who he has tried to whip to the fold, who have run away and may not come back soon.

Like the prodigal son in Bible, they believe they have made a smart career move because suitors too will knock on their doors for, after all, Mr Ruto will be a running mate again in 2017.

But maybe we are fatally wrong about a 2022 wait because there are other sweet things that once you are in power, come just like lunch courses at a Seven-Star Hotel, and so it is worth waiting for the main dish for that long.

So it may just be a few misinformed characters who are impatient to see Mr Kenyatta hand over to Mr Ruto in January 2023.

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William Ruto URP