Homa Bay by-election was a game changer, Kajwang’ deserves seat

On February 12, voters in Homa Bay County elected their new Senator Moses Otieno Kajwang’, to replace his late brother Gerald in a landslide victory that left supporters and opponents alike wondering what had just happened.

To Philip Okundi, the votes were stolen through the connivance of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) and ODM, the party that sponsored Moses, to his outstanding victory.

To Fred Rabango, one of the contestants from Subaland, there was never a fraud so carefully orchestrated, and which fooled every villager to believe ODM was such a popular party. Rabango contends that this popularity is a figment of the imagination of a “few” ODM sycophants.

To the media and other onlookers, this finally proved that ODM leader Raila Odinga is overwhelmingly popular in Luoland, and the party dominant in that lakeside region.

The only opinion that has not been sought and publicised is that of the ODM members and supporters themselves, from Mandera to Vanga, Othoch Rakuom to Emanyulia, from Moyale to Lamu. Attempt is now made today to present this other view.

Let me confess from the beginning, for those who do not know me, that I am speaking from within as a founder member of the party, a leader in the party and a social scientist.

So, I will try and discipline my analysis, by not being carried away too much by enthusiasm for the party’s success. Contrary to the diatribe I see in the social media against my persona, I am not – and never have been – a sycophant. So let the belligerent warriors from other political rival quarters hold their horses.

It should be recognised that ODM had a good candidate who was a cut above the others: Moses Otieno Kajwang’. One only needed to have watched a debate that Citizen TV organised for the candidates to see who was on top.

The method of nominating him was vilified by opponents as undemocratic and dictatorial because the party’s Election Board used its good offices as provided for in the Constitution to do this.

However, before it did so, it asked all candidates to consent to the method by signing up to it: they all did and promised to support whoever among them was chosen. Only Caroli Omondi and Silas Jakakimba did so.

The rest decided to join the contest using tickets from other political parties where they faced absolutely no competition in any nomination process.

Philip Okundi, who had been a good chairman of the ODM Elections Board for four years, never saw anything undemocratic about this law during his tenure. And it was to be used when the other two alternatives – open primaries and choice by delegates – were not possible.

The other contestants, as members of the party, had never seen the so-called undemocratic nature of this law until they were contesting themselves. The implications are obvious.

Going back to Moses Kajwang’: he was the best candidate from the start. Evidence? I campaigned with him in Homa Bay constituency for a whole day. He never at any one moment in the dozen stops we made mentioned the other candidates, nor did he attack them in person.

He never even talked about the political parties that sponsored other candidates. He was always putting his case, telling people about the ODM policies such as devolution, and going into details on the power the people have to change their life chances by ensuring devolution works.

From the campaign experience, Moses told me the following: One, that political party matters a great deal in grassroots politics in Nyanza at this point in time. People resonated with the concern of not reducing the numbers of ODM/CORD in both the Senate and the National Assembly. If Jubilee is constantly threatening us with tyranny of numbers, we should send shivers down their spine with quality of numbers. Young, articulate, focused and in touch with the masses, he was fit to add to the quality of numbers in the Senate.

Two, people who have gone to Parliament from Nyanza on other tickets, with very few exceptions, have not performed very well. They very often have relied heavily on their financial might to get votes. Voters now realise “the monied lot” are not necessarily cut out to be good representatives at the local and national level.

Quite often these monied candidates are the ones who hire jobless youths to cause mayhem in elections, a phenomenon which has a roller coaster effect among candidates.

Once violence begins, it is difficult to stop because every candidate fearing attack will recruit his or her “defence force”.

Three, the market women, ones known as aswekra in Luo (those who spread their goods on cloth, mats, dry ground or grass in markets) are the ones who don’t usually depend on being “bought” to vote.

They keenly listen to who can change their life chances and how. On the campaign trail Moses was very good at this. The aswekra are many in numbers. They have wide networks and they are vocal. You get them to your side and you are half way towards winning.

Four, the youth are critical in winning elections. Like aswekra, they have the numbers and are good mobilisers if motivated and organised, but not necessarily good voters if the party structure does not effectively engage them in getting out to vote on voting day. How the ODM did this in Homa Bay will remain a trade secret for now.

Five, the Homa Bay seat was won because the people saw the whole party and CORD leadership reach out to them. These were leaders from Mombasa, Mandera, Nairobi, Kajiado, Eldoret, Elgeyo Marakwet, Kitui, Machakos, Bungoma, Kakamega, you name it. The face of Kenya was there. Homa Bay people felt they were part of Kenya directly and not through proxies.

Jubilee tried to reach out to them through political dealers using surrogate parties. This did not go well with the people.

Finally, it must be noted that the party and coalition leader Raila Amolo Odinga, is the President that Kenyans have not had because of botched, stolen and chicken-gated elections.

These are facts confirmed by Justice Riggler and many scholars in their researches and writings following the 2007 and 2013 elections.

This story is hard to forget in Raila’s home tuff. So long as that fire for winning the presidential elections keeps burning, his campaign in any election across the Kenyan nation will give sleepless nights to his opponents: Homa Bay confirmed this.