Raila, Kalonzo team’s strategy in Opposition

By Oscar Obonyo

He has said as much – not once but several times – that he is not keen on returning to Parliament, yet supporters will not tire to persuade the Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD) leader Raila Odinga to rethink his decision.

The latest pressure has come from his very own lobby groups, Friends of Raila (FORA) and Youths for Raila as well as the Luo Council of Elders from his rural backyard of Nyanza region.

Similarly, Raila’s running mate in the March polls, former Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, is under pressure to find entry into the National Assembly. Senator for Machakos County Johnston Muthama has volunteered to spearhead these efforts at a local level.

Nonetheless, The Standard On Sunday has established the Raila-Kalonzo supporters may well be acting like the proverbial mourners, who cry louder than the bereaved. Apparently, the two, alongside Senator for Bungoma County Moses Wetangula, decided way back on a working formula for CORD.

“After the ruling by the Supreme Court — which surprised us and which absolutely we do not agree with — we took time off to South Africa and deliberated on all possible options, and agreed to play the role of an effective Opposition,” says Wetangula.    

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Keeping team together

The Ford-Kenya leader divulges that it was agreed that each of the three principals plays a crucial role in holding CORD together and keeping the Uhuru Kenyatta-led Government on its toes. According to the agreement, Wetangula and Kalonzo are supposed to lead the CORD forces from Parliament — Wetangula in the Senate and Kalonzo in the National Assembly. And as the group’s captain, Raila is destined to lead from outside Parliament.

The trio’s resolve is best demonstrated by Raila’s constant reference to the Kiswahili adage, kuvunjika kwa mwiko sio mwisho wa kupika ugali (Down but not out). This allegory means, no matter the disappointments and misfortunes in life one undergoes, life has to continue.

To Raila, politics is daily food he must continue to eat. The import of this is that despite advice from some friends and foes that he takes a break from active politics, the former PM is not quitting just yet. The same is true of his partner, Kalonzo.

This agreement, struck in South Africa, informs the decision by the CORD fraternity to appoint one-time Environment minister Francis Nyenze to the position of Leader of Minority in an acting capacity.

The Standard On Sunday has, however, learnt that disquiet is setting in over Nyenze’s position, particularly the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) wing, which has majority legislators within CORD. According to our source, the politicians feel Nyenze lacks political clout and is ceding too much ground already to the Jubilee rivals.

The Orange legislators, according to an MP who declined to be named for fear of being accused of being divisive, seriously feel that CORD lost out greatly in the recent formation of House Business and Selection committees because of poor negotiation.

A section of MPs polled by The Standard On Sunday are of the opinion that Rongo MP and immediate former Public Service minister Dalmas Otieno is better placed to spearhead the coalition’s interests and negotiations in the House.

“Dalmas is a sober politician, who enjoys a lot of respect and goodwill from both sides of the political divide. He also enjoys substantial support from Jubilee, including (President) Uhuru and other former and present Kanu legislators,” offers one MP. 

Key positions

The push for Dalmas to replace Nyenze is largely by ODM-allied MPs, who feel that despite being the majority party in CORD and indeed in Parliament, they have missed out on all key positions in Parliament. Besides Wiper Democratic Movement’s (WDM) Nyenze, the Minority leader in the Senate is Ford-Kenya’s Wetangula.

However, pundits warn that a move to replace Nyenze could mark the end of the political marriage between ODM and WDM. Nonetheless, rescue could be on the way if former Kibwezi MP and leader of The Independent Party (TIP) Kalembe Ndile paves way for Kalonzo’s entry to Parliament.

Kalembe has intimated that sitting Kibwezi West MP Patrick Musimba has agreed to step aside for Kalonzo. However, the former assistant minister has filed a petition against Musimba’s election and wants the case determined first before he can play ball.

Muthama, who is pushing for the return of Raila and Kalonzo to Parliament, and Leader of Majority Aden Duale, have separately warned the two senior politicians may become irrelevant if they stay out of elective politics.  

But Wetangula disagrees: “Is it possible for a politician of Raila’s stature, who has a huge and intact political constituency to suddenly sink into irrelevancy? Of course that can never be true.” 

Former Sports minister and Budalang’i MP Ababu Namwamba is in agreement.

According to Namwamba, CORD Alliance, “will hold fort for Raila – in and outside the two houses (National Assembly and Senate) – until the next elections when he is ready to take charge of the team again”.

“This is because your stature has grown beyond Parliament and it will be unthinkable to have you their as minority leader, with our friend Duale as your opposite as majority leader,” Namwamba told Raila during a recent luncheon the former Premier hosted for his presidential campaign team.

But before the next elections, Raila and Namwamba maintain this should be the last time Kenyans go to the polls with the Independent Electoral Boundaries and Commission (IEBC) as referee and under its current leadership and structures

“It becomes very difficult to appreciate lessons learnt from bungled electoral processes such as this one, that Kenyans had a lot of hopes in. One thing is clear, though, that most of our institutions are still open to manipulation and corruption,” observes Namwamba.

Speaking during the function, Raila said they did everything right to win the elections, “but that was never going to happen”.

“I have been around for some time and I know the strategies of winning an election. 1997, I made my debut to introduce myself to the Kenyan people and in 2002 I spearhead campaigns that made (Mwai) Kibaki president. And you all know the real winner of 2007 and this year’s poll,” Raila told his guests.