Okwaro Oscar Plato
Once again, opinion poll ratings have shown Prime Minister Raila Odinga leading albeit with some slight drop over all the other presidential hopefuls, but below the 50-plus one margin, which means he would face a run-off.
Unlike those pundits who rely on pollsters to predict future pattern of events, I develop this hypothesis that the elections will be a three-horse race between Raila, Musalia Mudavadi, and Uhuru Kenyatta.
But that race will eventually narrow down to Musalia against Raila – a two-horse race that could see the latter face the unexpected wrath of his former ODM stalwart.
This country is politically polarised because of two tribes – the Kikuyu and Luo.
This means neither community is likely to embrace the other easily when it comes to voting. It is also true Kenyan voters are unlikely to vote back another person from the House of Mumbi to the pinnacles of authority.
This analogy then leaves the electorate with ODM’s Raila and UDF’s Musalia. While I believe pollsters would predict Raila as the likely man to give Musalia a run for his money, I will sketch a scenario that has Mudavadi coming out as the next president because of his perceived neutrality.
Kalenjin and Kikuyu elite have convinced the electorate that their tribulations are as a result of Agwambo, an emotive tag and allegation that Raila will not manage to counter easily even if he hires the best of propagandists not even an equivalent of the energetic chief propagandist Joseph Goebbels (1897-1945) of Nazi Germany.
From the ICC, Mau Forest eviction of the “defenceless” and the rebirth of Mungiki among others are all baggage burdening down the son of Jaramogi Oginga in his search for the Kalenjin vote.
When the race eventually narrows down to the two, the most likely scenario is that Mudavadi will inherit a large chunk of Kikuyu and Kalenjin votes.
He could inherit the Kikuyu vote because of his neutrality and having worked with Kibaki amicably without brushing the PNU side of the coalition the wrong way and the Kalenjin bloc since he has kinsmen in the Rift Valley.
This situation elevates Mudavadi to a “prince of peace” who can unite the Kikuyu, Luo, and Kalenjin. In the event that he chooses his running mate from the Kalenjin or from among the “Easterners” that then portends a catastrophic effect on Raila and ODM.