ICC hitch foils election plots

By Stephen Makabila

The jostling for pre-election deals, compromise candidates, and alliances has taken a back seat as presidential hopefuls continue with pre-campaign activities.

But with recent developments throwing a run-off strategy in doubt, those in the race to State House may find themselves back at the drawing board.

The uncertainty comes as the frontrunner, ODM’s Raila Odinga, weathers a storm unleashed by a former aide who has published a book alleging abuse of office and involvement in economic crimes.

The Prime Minister has not yet responded to claims by former advisor Miguna Miguna in the book, Peeling Back the Mask, which will be launched officially in Nairobi today. It is unclear whether a response promised by his office will be made available before he leaves the country on Monday for a 10-day official visit to China. Raila will attend an ODM women’s convention today, his only public engagement for the weekend.

Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka has picked on Raila’s woes to push a stronger line on ending high-level corruption. Dismissing the PM as a “fake reformer”, the VP took his bold attacks to various stops in Machakos, Kitui and Makueni counties.

He concludes his tour of lower Eastern today, with a rally in Mwingi. Kalonzo’s efforts appear to have backfired with Water Minister Charity Ngilu, who had appeared to be drifting away from Raila, expressing support for the PM’s candidature. Ngilu, who has fought Kalonzo in Ukambani frequently, was even reported to have offered to run as Raila’s running mate in the 2013 election in a private meeting at the PM’s office. She has, however, denied this.

Leaders associated with the informal G7 grouping this weekend continue their efforts to build their support bases ahead of the General Election. They may continue to push generation change messages, attack Raila’s credentials like Kalonzo, or deal with some of the doubts about their strategy.

The G7 leaders broke away from joint rallies some time back and are pressing ahead with separate campaigns to popularise their parties. In recent weeks, they have concentrated on growing support in their home turfs. This seems to confirm a plan for individual presidential runs in the first round, allowing the strongest candidate to earn their backing in a run-off vote.

A fortnight ago, Eldoret North MP William Ruto spoke of the new plan.

“As it stands, we will all meet at the ballot box,” Ruto said. “Each one of us is selling his party to the people in readiness for the elections.”

Efforts to pressure the G7 into a pre-election deal are believed to have led to rifts and infighting some weeks ago, resulting in the change of strategy. But the prospect of two key leaders – Ruto and Deputy PM Uhuru Kenyatta – tied up in court and pre-trial preparation has cast doubt on this approach.

International Criminal Court trials are scheduled to begin on April 10 and 11, coinciding with the possible date for a second round vote. Should either of the ICC accused, Ruto or Uhuru, qualify for the run-off, they may be unable to campaign effectively as they are required to be at The Hague on or before April 10.

Opinion polls portray Uhuru as Raila’s strongest rival in a head-to-head matchup and the one most likely to end up in a run-off with him if all those who have shown interest in the presidency are on the ballot. But with the uncertainty the ICC process places on his involvement, there is pressure to have him run as Deputy PM Musalia Mudavadi’s running mate.

Mudavadi ratcheted up the pressure on Thursday during a rally in Nyandarua. He implored central Kenya to back his candidature because he supported Uhuru in 2002. Uhuru has been busy winning over leaders in central Kenya opposed to a plan to abandon all smaller parties for The National Alliance.

Last week, he made an extensive tour of Mt Kenya East, visiting Meru, Tharaka Nithi, and Embu. Earlier, he had toured Kiambu, Muranga and Nyeri counties. GNU party leader Mwangi Kiunjuri, who headed a wave of opposition to TNA, accompanied the Deputy PM throughout the tour. Kiunjuri alleged a plot to divide Uhuru’s support in central Kenya where he has a head start.

Back-to-back forays into regions visited by rivals are also evident with Mudavadi today expected in Meru and Tharaka Nithi. On Friday Mudavadi was pushing UDF in Nyandarua County, which Uhuru is scheduled to tour soon. Mudavadi faces competition in western Kenya where Justice Minister Eugene Wamalwa and his Trade counterpart Moses Wetang’ula have vowed to frustrate his bid.

In consolidating his Rift Valley base, Ruto has recently held a series of rallies in Kericho, West-Pokot, Turkana, Baringo, Elgeyo-Marakwet and Samburu counties. On Wednesday he met youth from Bomet and Narok counties ahead of a tour of Coast that began on Friday. Ruto is battling to stave off an ODM onslaught spearheaded by Tinderet MP and ODM chairman Henry Kosgey. Last weekend, Raila held rallies in Nakuru and Eldama Ravine.

“We have lined up more rallies in Nandi, Uasin-Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet and West-Pokot on dates to be released soon,” said Kosgey.

The ODM chairman sought to play down a face-off with Ruto’s URP, saying ODM was not in competition with anyone in Rift Valley.

“We have told our people the truth and they... are shifting to support a party with nationalistic ideals.”

Political science lecturer Amukowa Anangwe says the home turf strategy favours two aspirants and implies it would only be of use to the others in a run-off. A bloc vote, he says, might only succeed in central Kenya and Nyanza.

“Rift Valley is too cosmopolitan,” says Prof Anangwe. “Western suffers from intra-Luhya divisions. Lower Eastern has Kalonzo and Ngilu forces competing.”