By PETER OPIYO and STEVEN MKAWALE
In the latest survey, Raila still leads at 35 per cent, Mudavadi, who broke ranks with him and has showed intention to vie for the presidency, gained 5.5 per cent to record a popularity rating of 8.5 per cent. Eldoret North MP William Ruto and Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka also gained ground by 2.9 and 2.8 per cent.
Raila had a popularity rating of 38 per cent in February while Mudavadi had three per cent. Ruto and Kalonzo had seven and six per cent respectively, during the same period.
But in the latest opinion poll, Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta is the second most preferred candidate at 17.3 per cent. Ruto comes third at 9.9 per cent. Kalonzo has 8.8 per cent popularity rating, while Mudavadi is fifth followed by Gichugu MP, Martha Karua at 3.9 per cent.
In the findings released by Infotrak Research and Consulting Managing Director Angela Ambitho, Karua lost 1.1 per cent and Uhuru lost 0.7 per cent as compared to the survey conducted in February.
Gatanga MP, Peter Kenneth remained at two per cent while Justice Minister Eugene Wamalwa gained 0.7 per cent to post 1.7 per cent popularity rating. Raphael Tuju also gained 0.7 per cent to post 1.3 per cent.
“Comparing Infotrak Harris poll for February and that of June, it shows Raila Odinga as the greatest loser (-3 per cent), Martha Karua (-1.10 per cent) and Uhuru Kenyatta (0.7 per cent). The greatest gainer was Musalia Mudavadi at (+5.5 per cent) from 3 per cent in February to 8.5 per cent in June 2012, followed by William Ruto (+2.9 per cent) and Kalonzo Musyoka (+2.8 per cent),” states the survey.
In the survey where 2,400 respondents were interviewed, the question posed to them was: Apart from President Mwai Kibaki, who would you vote for as your president if presidential elections were held today?
Raila has more than 50 per cent support in four of the eight provinces, with Uhuru managing only one. Uhuru has 55 per cent support in his Central Province backyard while Raila has 12 per cent support in the region. The PM recorded 78 per cent in Nyanza, 61 per cent in North Eastern, 56 per cent in Coast and 52 per cent in Nairobi.
Interestingly, the PM still overshadows Mudavadi in his backyard of Western Province even after the Sabatia MP declared his presidential bid, Raila has 47 per cent in the province while Mudavadi has 31 per cent support base.
In case Raila, Uhuru or Ruto opts out of the race Mudavadi would be the preferred candidate. Of those who would vote for the PM, 18 per cent say they would vote for the Sabatia MP if Raila opts not to run. 21 per cent of Uhuru voters would also vote for him while 15 per cent of Ruto voters also prefer Mudavadi.