Top aspirants in spirited battle for first round win

By STEPHEN MAKABILA

What are chances of one of the 14 presidential aspirants sealing victory in the first round of the presidential contest come the March election?

While its highly speculated Prime Minister Raila Odinga was keen to see all G7 leaders on the presidential ballot (including Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Eldoret North MP William Ruto, who are facing charges at The Hague), to fragment their votes, they have argued they are privy to the scheme and will ensure one of them secures the presidency in round one.

Another likely entry into the G7 circuit, Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi, has also indicated he has the ability to win the presidency in the first round.

Mudavadi noted last week while in Malava, Kakamega County, that his United Democratic Forum wants to win the elections in the first round and locals should avoid to fall prey to scheme by opponents who want to divide the region’s votes to force a re-run.

“In UDF, we want to win in the first round but others want extra time and that is why they want to divide us. We should not fall into their scheme. Let us vote as a bloc to defeat their opportunistic plans,” said Mudavadi.

For one to win the presidency in the first round under the new Constitution, he or she should manage more than 50 per cent of the votes cast, and equally get 25 per cent of votes in at least 24 counties.

Failure by a candidate to manage the above gives room for a presidential re-run between the first and the runners-up.

“With most presidential candidates involved in ethnic mobilisation to win support, its tricky for one to win in the first round. One can win the popular vote but miss to secure more than half of the counties,” says political analyst lawyer Martin Oloo.

Centre for Multi-Party Democracy chairman Justin Muturi, however, notes it’s possible for one to win the presidency in the first round depending on the type of pre-election alliance he or she is in.
“If an alliance is strong and well represented in various regions, there is no reason why one cannot secure the presidency in round one,” added lawyer Muturi.

Among some the existing alliances include the G7 alliance, which apart from Ruto and Uhuru, also brings together Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, Justice minister Eugene Wamalwa, Environment minister Chirau Mwakwere, Dujis MP Aden Duale and former assistant minister Omingo Magara.

Oloo, a lecturer at the Kenya School of Law, concurs with Muturi on the possibility of a first round win, but on the basis of unity within an alliance such as the G7.

“If G7 decide to back one leader, then they can secure the presidency in the first round but if all are on the ballot, then chances are slim,” said Oloo.
He further points out what a candidate needs to take note of is how to secure the popular vote and win at least 24 counties.

Rift Valley province has the highest number of counties and this partly explains why most presidential aspirants have been gravitating around the province.

Campaigns have equally been intense in regions such as Western Province, Central Kenya, Coast and South-Nyanza (Kisii region).

Originally, G7 had two options, one being to support a single candidate and win the presidency in round one or two, to run separately and force a run-off, before backing whoever would have entered the run-off bracket from the group.

Chances of unity seem to be reducing since each of the four main members of the alliance (Uhuru, Kalonzo, Ruto and Wamalwa) are all planning to contest on their own party tickets.

It is also clear Raila now wants his rivals — Uhuru and Ruto — on the ballot despite their charges at the ICC and he has stated publicly that no one should be denied a chance to run.

Apart from G7, another alliance was between Uhuru, Kalonzo and the late Internal Security Minister George Saitoti.

Prof Saitoti died two weeks ago just when he was about to discuss modalities on how to elect one presidential candidate within the Alliance Party of Kenya with Uhuru and Kalonzo, according to, PNU National Organising Secretary Maina Kamanda.

There are reports Uhuru, Kalonzo and Energy minister Kiraitu Murungi are involved in another new alliance, meant to consolidate votes around Mt Kenya region.

A few months back, Parliament upheld pre-election coalitions after amending legislation to regulate political parties.

Then, rejection of the attempt to outlaw pre-election coalitions was seen as a triumph in Parliament by the so-called G7 alliance over Raila’s ODM.

The amendment by former Justice minister Mutula Kilonzo (now in Education docket), which was moved by Kiraitu, sanctioned both pre and post-election coalitions. The amended provision reads: “Two or more political parties may form a coalition before or after an election and shall deposit the coalition agreement with the registrar.”

It adds: “A coalition agreement entered into before an election shall be deposited with the registrar at least three months before that election.”

Clause Three further stipulates a coalition deal entered into after an election shall be deposited with the registrar within 21 days of the signing of the agreement.